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Theory of Change

How does FSC intend to generate positive social, environmental and economic outcomes on the ground? To facilitate these outcomes FSC’s main certification requirements are connected to intended outcomes that contribute to FSC’s Theory of Change.
 

Monitoring and Evaluation System
FSC Romania / Sebastian Popa

What is a Theory of Change?

A theory of change (ToC) is the basis from which organizations can identify their intended impacts and the actions needed to achieve them. For FSC, this means: how do certified forest management ensures the generation of positive environmental, social and economic outcomes?

FSC’s ToC helps us to articulate our intended impacts, their contribution to wider sustainability goals for the forest sector, and the related pathways and supporting strategies required to achieve FSC‘s Vision.
 

Revision process for P&C
FSC Romania / Sebastian Popa

Revision process for P&C

The revision process for the P&C is currently underway, and this section will be updated accordingly.
 

FAQs

  1. What is the FSC's Theory of Change (ToC) to Forest Certification Impacts? 

    FSC's Theory of Change (ToC) to Forest Certification Impacts illustrates what change FSC intends to make on the long-term (FSC Vision) and how to get to that change through forest management certification. This journey is outlined by causal relationships among each intended outcome.

    The ToC finds it roots on FSC Principles & Criteria for Forest Stewardship (STD-01-001 v5-2), known as FSC’s backbone standard.  

  2. What is the ToC composed of? 

    The ToC is composed of the following elements: 

    • Intended outcomes of forest management certification 

    What does FSC want to achieve with the Principles and Criteria? 

    • Indicators associated with each intended outcome* 

    What needs to be measured to track progress against the intended outcomes? 

    • Causal relationships among successive intended outcomes. This helps understand why desired outcomes have or have not been achieved 

    What are prerequisites to achieve the intended outcomes? 

    • Unintended outcomes:  

    What unintended effects (positive or negative) can be expected? 

    Clarification note: outcomes must be understood as short- to medium-term effects associated with FSC certification, while impacts are longer-term results, directly or indirectly, resulting from FSC. 

  3. What is the goal of the ToC? 

    The FSC's ToC serves as the foundation to guide Monitoring and Evaluation activities of FSC at the forest level. It is to be used by FSC‘s Monitoring & Evaluation team to further identify priorities in the scope of these activities, develop detailed indicators relevant for specific regions and determine data sources. The goal is then to collect data to assess to which extent the intended outcomes are being achieved and foster insight-driven development of FSC requierements for forest management certification.  

    The ToC also aims to support researchers and impact evaluators to guide their research projects. It should facilitate the choice of outcomes and indicators and the development of scientific hypothesis. External independent research about the effects of FSC certification is an important source of knowledge that should likewise help the development of FSC requierements for forest management certification. 

    Therefore, the ToC should be continually improved and refined as data are analysed and assumptions about intended outcomes and causal links are tested.   

  4. Is FSC tracking all the intended outcomes and indicators presented on the ToC? 

    No, as tracking all intended outcomes and indicators would be very costly and complicated with little added effect. As a result, FSC further prioritizes and refines the intended outcomes and indicators that should be implemented as part of Monitoring & Evaluation activities based on global relevance, added value of FSC certification, international consistency of indicators, and practicality of measurement. This focus can be shown using the highlighter „Scope of the Monitoring & Evaluation system“. 

  5. Is the ToC applicable to forests found in all regions and contexts in the World? 

    The ToC has been designed to be generic enough to remain relevant for all forests. However, the exercise of developing indicators at a global level is inherently limited by the fact that national forest management standards and local socio-environmental context vary across countries. Many of the suggested outcomes and indicators will need to be further refined to capture the specific effects of FSC certification in various forest contexts across the globe. This will be done for the prioritized scope of the Monitoring and Evaluation activities (see „What is the goal of the ToC?“). 

  6. Should the ToC be considered as exhaustive and final?

    No. The goal of the ToC is not to present an exhaustive list of accurate outcomes and indicators for the entire FSC portfolio. Its goal is to illustrate the most important aspects related to the effects of FSC certification.  the ToC serves as a basis to test assumptions about the effects of FSC-certification and causal relationships among intended outcomes. Therefore, it should be continually improved and refined as data are analysed and assumptions about intended outcomes and causal links are tested.  

  7. What is the feature highlighting items relevant for climate-change mitigation showing? 

    This highlighter allows selecting all items (Principles, Criteria and Intended Outcomes) that directly influence carbon sequestration benefits. While requirements for outcomes on biodiversity, water management and similar eco-system services are quite explicit in the FSC Principles & Criteria for Forest Stewardship, this is not true for requirements to maintain climate-change mitigation. Given the increasing global recognition of the importance of forests as nature-based solution to combat climate-change, we have added a highlighter to make the climate impact of FSC more visible.